Fiscal Policy Analyst

A global non-partisan organization is seeking a consultant for an independent analysis of the potential impact of introducing a premium flyer levy in a specific European country. The analysis will cover revenue potential, distributional effects, economic impact, and legal feasibility. The consultant will set out a small number of costed design options and recommend which of them the organization should pursue.

What you will do.

• Establish what a differentiated premium flyer levy would raise in the country concerned and who would bear the cost.
• Provide a robust evidence base capable of withstanding scrutiny from the national aviation industry and the Ministry of Economy and Finance.
• Identify the most politically and legally viable design option, along with the legislative route through which it could realistically be advanced.

Activities.

• Baseline mapping:
• Map the taxes and charges currently applied to air passengers and aircraft in the country, including the municipal boarding surcharge, regional charges where applicable, the erariale tax on private and business aircraft, VAT treatment, and the cost of EU ETS obligations.
• For each charge, set out the legal basis, the rate, the annual yield, and where the revenue goes.
• Establish the volume and composition of premium traffic departing from the country, covering premium cabin passengers by route category and business and general aviation movements by airport, and how both have moved since 2019.
• Design options and revenue modelling:
• Develop three to four concrete levy designs for the country, including as a minimum a premium cabin levy differentiated by distance band, a charge on private and business aviation levied per passenger or per movement, and a combined option.
• Specify for each design the taxable event, the liable party, the rate structure, and the collection mechanism.
• Model the annual revenue of each option over five years, giving a central estimate and a sensitivity range.
• Distributional and economic impact:
• Assess who bears the cost of each option, including the share of departing passengers affected and the effect on ticket prices by market segment.
• Assess the likely effect on demand, route connectivity, airport competitiveness, and employment, using published price elasticities and evidence from countries that have introduced comparable measures.
• Engage directly with the arguments made by national airline and airport industry bodies.
• Quantify the emissions associated with premium and private aviation departing from the country and estimate the emissions effect of each design option.
• Legal and fiscal feasibility:
• Identify the legislative vehicle each option would require and assess compatibility with EU law, the Chicago Convention, and bilateral air service agreements.
• Assess whether revenue could be directed to development cooperation and global health within national budget law, including any constraints on earmarking and the precedents available.
• Political economy:
• Map the positions of the relevant ministries, national civil aviation authorities, industry associations, carriers, airport operators, trade unions, and regional authorities.
• Identify the parliamentary and budgetary windows through which each option could be advanced.
• Recommendations:
• Rank the design options against revenue potential, political feasibility, and administrative simplicity, and recommend a preferred option together with a fallback.

Deliverables.

• Inception note of three to five pages setting out method, data sources, and any proposed change to scope.
• Draft report in English of 25 to 30 pages, excluding annexes.
• Final report in English incorporating the organization's comments, with an executive summary in Italian.
• Revenue model in Excel, with all assumptions documented and adjustable.
• Two-page summary in Italian suitable for circulation to parliamentarians and officials.
• One online presentation of the findings to the organization's staff, of up to 90 minutes including discussion.